Theory

Theory has a number of distinct meanings in different fields of knowledge, depending on the context and their methodologies.

Etymology
The word ‘theory’ derives from the Greek ‘theorein’, which means ‘to look at’. According to some sources, it was used frequently in terms of ‘looking at’ a theatre stage, which may explain why sometimes the word ‘theory’ is used as something provisional or not completely resembling real. The term ‘theoria’ (a noun) was already used by the scholars of ancient Greeks.

Science
In scientific usage, a theory does not mean an unsubstantiated guess or hunch, as it often does in other contexts. Scientific theories are never proven to be true, but can be disproven. All scientific understanding takes the form of hypotheses, or conjectures. A theory is in this context a set of hypotheses that are logically bound together (See also hypothetico-deductive method).

Theories are typically ways of explaining why things happen, often, but not always after their occurrence is no longer in scientific dispute. For example, "global warming" refers to the observation that worldwide temperatures seem to be increasing. The "theory of global warming" refers instead to scientific work that attempts to explain how and why this could be happening.

In various sciences, a theory is a logically self-consistent model or framework for describing the behavior of a certain natural or social phenomenon, thus either originating from or supported by experimental evidence (see scientific method). In this sense, a theory is a systematic and formalized expression of all previous observations made that is predictive, logical, testable, and has never been falsified.

In physics, the term theory is generally used for a mathematical framework derived from a small set of basic principles, capable of producing experimental predictions for a given category of physical systems. A good example is electromagnetic theory, which encompasses the results that can be derived from Maxwell's equations. This theory is usually taken to be synonymous with classical electromagnetism.

The term theoretical is used in science to describe a result that is predicted by theory but has not yet been observed. For example, until recently, black holes were considered theoretical. It is not uncommon in the history of physics for theory to produce predictions that are later confirmed by experiment; failed predictions, however, also occur, and sometimes work to falsify a theory. Conversely, at any time in the study of physics there can also be confirmed experimental results that are not yet explained by theory.

For a given body of theory to be considered part of established scientific knowledge, it is usually necessary for it to characterize a critical experiment, namely an experimental result not predicted by any existing established theory.

Unfortunately, usage of the term theory is muddled by scientists in such examples as string theory and various theories of everything, which are more correctly characterized at present as a bundle of competing hypotheses or a protoscience. A hypothesis, however, is still vastly more reliable than a conjecture, which is at best an untested guess consistent with selected data and often simply a belief based on non-repeatable experiments, anecdotes, popular opinion, "wisdom of the ancients," commercial motivation, or mysticism.

Most troublesome for the scientific community is the fact that, in common speech, theory has almost the opposite meaning from its use in the sciences. This change can be seen in modern dictionaries which now list theory as a "guess or hunch" in preference to the former scientific definition that used to be the dominant one. In everyday English, a theory is (Morrison, 2005, p. 39):
 * ...a hunch that a detective comes up with in a murder mystery. It is one of several competing ideas, none of them proved. Fringe theories and conspiracy theories are crazy ideas that are out of the mainstream. New medicines or changes in the tax laws may be good in theory but don't work in practice. Among some scientists, theorists are thought to lack solid grounding in the facts...

Even scientists tend to use the now common definition in everyday speech and writing, being more careful in published material. Yet a California Academy of Sciences exhibit on fossils included this line: "Scientists have a number of theories about why ammonites develop spines on their shells" (emphasis added; from Morrison, 2005).

Models
Humans construct theories in order to explain, predict and master phenomena (e.g. inanimate things, events, or the behaviour of animals). In many instances, this is seen to be the construction of models of reality. A theory makes generalizations about observations and consists of an interrelated, coherent set of ideas and models.

According to Stephen Hawking in A Brief History of Time, "a theory is a good theory if it satisfies two requirements: It must accurately describe a large class of observations on the basis of a model that contains only a few arbitrary elements, and it must make definite predictions about the results of future observations." He goes on to state, "any physical theory is always provisional, in the sense that it is only a hypothesis; you can never prove it. No matter how many times the results of experiments agree with some theory, you can never be sure that the next time the result will not contradict the theory. On the other hand, you can disprove a theory by finding even a single repeatable observation that disagrees with the predictions of the theory."

This is a view shared by Isaac Asimov. In Understanding Physics, Asimov spoke of theories as "arguments" where one deduces a "scheme" or model. Arguments or theories always begin with some premises - "arbitrary elements" as Hawking calls them (see above), which are here described as "assumptions". An assumption according to Asimov is "something accepted without proof, and it is incorrect to speak of an assumption as either true or false, since there is no way of proving it to be either. (If there were, it would no longer be an assumption.) It is better to consider assumptions as either useful or useless, depending on whether deductions made from them corresponded to reality. .. On the other hand, it seems obvious that assumptions are the weak points in any argument, as they have to be accepted on faith in a philosophy of science that prides itself on its rationalism. Since we must start somewhere, we must have assumptions, but at least let us have as few assumptions as possible." (See Ockham's razor)

An example of using assumptions to formulate a theory is when Albert Einstein put forth his Special Theory of Relativity. He took two phenomena that had been observed i.e. that the "addition of velocities" is valid (Galilean transformation) and that light did not appear to have an "addition of velocities" (Michelson-Morley experiment). He assumed that both of these were correct and formulated his theory based on these assumptions by simply altering the Galilean transformation to accommodate the lack of addition of velocities with regard to the speed of light. Therefore, the model created in his theory is based on the assumption that light maintains a constant velocity (or more precisely the speed of light is a constant).

An example of how theories are models can be seen from theories on the planetary system. The Greeks formulated theories that were recorded by the astronomer Ptolemy. In Ptolemy's planetary model, the earth was at the center, the planets and the sun made circular orbits around the earth, and the stars were on a sphere outside of the orbits of the planet and the earth. Retrograde motion of the planets was explained by smaller circular orbits of individual planets. This could actually be built into a literal model and illustrated as a model. Mathematical calculations could be made for the prediction of where the planets would be to a great degree of accuracy, so that this model of the planetary system survived over 1500 years until the time of Copernicus. So one can see how a theory is a model of reality that explains certain scientific facts yet may not be a true picture of reality and another more accurate theory can later replace the previous model.

In engineering practise, to avoid confusion with a physical model (e.g., the winged rockets built by Convair to test the Whitcomb area rule for the F-106 supersonic aircraft), the above are called "mathematical models".

Types of theories
There are two uses of the word theory; a supposition which is not backed by observation is known as a conjecture, and if backed by observation it is a hypothesis. Most theory evolves from hypotheses, but the reverse is not true: many hypotheses turn out to be false and so do not evolve into theory.

A theory is different from a theorem. The former is a model of physical events and cannot be proved from basic axioms. The latter is a statement of mathematical fact which logically follows from a set of axioms. A theory is also different from a physical law in that the latter is a model of reality, whereas the former is an explanatory statement of what has been observed, explaining the why and how of the observed physical law.

Theories can become accepted if they are able to make correct predictions and avoid incorrect ones. Theories which are simpler, and more mathematically elegant, tend to be accepted over theories which are complex. Theories are more likely to be accepted if they connect a wide range of phenomena. The process of accepting theories, or of extending existing theory, is part of the scientific method.

Further explanation of a scientific theory
As noted above, in common usage a theory is defined as little more than a guess or a hypothesis. But in science and generally in academic usage, a theory is much more than that. A theory is an established paradigm that explains all or much of the data we have and offers valid predictions that can be tested. In science, a theory is not considered fact or infallible, because we can never assume we know all there is to know. Instead, theories remain standing until they are disproved, at which point they are thrown out altogether or modified to fit the additional data.

Theories start out with empirical observations such as "sometimes water turns into ice." At some point, there is a need or curiosity to find out why this is, which leads to a theoretical/scientific phase. In scientific theories, this then leads to research, in combination with auxiliary and other hypotheses (see scientific method), which may then eventually lead to a theory. Some scientific theories (such as the theory of gravity) are so widely accepted that they are often seen as laws. This, however, rests on a mistaken assumption of what theories and laws are. Theories and laws are not rungs in a ladder of truth, but different sets of data. A law is a general statement based on observations.

A canonical example of a disproved theory is the geocentric model of the universe proposed by Ptolemy. Evidence, in the form of Galileo's observation of the phases of Venus in 1610, was produced which was completely incompatible with the predictions set forth by the theory. This falsification, though, did not necessarily mean that only one alternative theory was necessarily the "correct" replacement &mdash; both the Copernican system and the Tychonic system predicted the phases of Venus.

Characteristics
In science, a body of descriptions of knowledge is usually only called a theory once it has a firm empirical basis, i.e., it


 * 1) is consistent with pre-existing theory to the extent that the pre-existing theory was experimentally verified, though it will often show pre-existing theory to be wrong in an exact sense,
 * 2) is supported by many strands of evidence rather than a single foundation, ensuring that it probably is a good approximation if not totally correct,
 * 3) makes predictions that might someday be used to disprove the theory,
 * 4) is tentative, correctable and dynamic, in allowing for changes to be made as new data is discovered, rather than asserting certainty, and
 * 5) is the most parsimonious explanation, sparing in proposed entities or explanations, commonly referred to as passing Ockham's razor.

This is true of such established theories as special and general relativity, quantum mechanics, plate tectonics, evolution, etc. Theories considered scientific meet at least most, but ideally all, of the above criteria. The fewer which are matched, the less scientific it is; those that meet only several or none at all, cannot be said to be scientific in any meaningful sense of the word.

Karl Popper described the characteristics of a scientific theory as:

1. It is easy to obtain confirmations, or verifications, for nearly every theory — if we look for confirmations.

2. Confirmations should count only if they are the result of risky predictions; that is to say, if, unenlightened by the theory in question, we should have expected an event which was incompatible with the theory — an event which would have refuted the theory.

3. Every "good" scientific theory is a prohibition: it forbids certain things to happen. The more a theory forbids, the better it is.

4. A theory which is not refutable by any conceivable event is non-scientific. Irrefutability is not a virtue of a theory (as people often think) but a vice.

5. Every genuine test of a theory is an attempt to falsify it, or to refute it. Testability is falsifiability; but there are degrees of testability: some theories are more testable, more exposed to refutation, than others; they take, as it were, greater risks.

6. Confirming evidence should not count except when it is the result of a genuine test of the theory; and this means that it can be presented as a serious but unsuccessful attempt to falsify the theory. (I now speak in such cases of "corroborating evidence.")

7. Some genuinely testable theories, when found to be false, are still upheld by their admirers — for example by introducing ad hoc some auxiliary assumption, or by reinterpreting the theory ad hoc in such a way that it escapes refutation. Such a procedure is always possible, but it rescues the theory from refutation only at the price of destroying, or at least lowering, its scientific status. (I later described such a rescuing operation as a "conventionalist twist" or a "conventionalist stratagem.").

One can sum up all this by saying that the criterion of the scientific status of a theory is its falsifiability, or refutability, or testability."--end quote

Mathematics
In mathematics, the word theory is used informally to refer to certain distinct bodies of knowledge about mathematics. This knowledge consists of axioms, definitions, theorems and computational techniques, all related in some way by tradition or practice. Examples include group theory, set theory, Lebesgue integration theory and field theory.

The term "theory" also has a formal usage in mathematics, particularly in mathematical logic and model theory. A theory in this sense is a set of statements closed under certain rules of inference. A typical theory will present certain axioms and rules, corresponding to a useful or interesting abstraction, and then derive non-obvious theorems from those axioms. The resulting theorems often provide solutions to real-world problems which correspond to the original abstraction. Obvious examples include arithmetic (abstracting the concept of number), geometry (the concept of space), and probability (the concept of randomness).

However, Gödel's incompleteness theorem shows that no consistent theory capable of defining the concept of natural numbers can derive all true statements about those numbers. This sets a fundamental limit to the applicability of any mathematical system.

Other fields
Theories exist not only in the so-called hard sciences; but in all fields of academic study, from philosophy to music to literature. In the humanities, theory is often used as an abbreviation for critical theory or literary theory, referring to continental philosophy's aesthetics or its attempts to understand the structure of society and to conceptualize alternatives. In philosophy, theoreticism refers to the overuse of theory.

List of famous theories

 * Biology: Evolution by natural selection - Cell theory
 * Chemistry: Atomic theory - Kinetic theory of gases
 * Climatology: Global warming
 * Computer science: Algorithmic information theory - Computation theory
 * Engineering: Circuit theory - Control theory - Signal theory - Systems theory
 * Games: Rational choice theory - Game theory
 * Geology: Continental drift - Plate tectonics
 * Humanities: Critical theory
 * Literature: Literary theory
 * Mathematics: Axiomatic set theory - Catastrophe theory - Chaos theory - Graph theory - Number theory - Probability theory
 * Music: Music theory
 * Philosophy: Speculative reason
 * Physics: Theory of relativity - Special relativity - General relativity - Quantum field theory - Acoustic theory - Antenna theory
 * Planetary science: Giant impact theory
 * Sociology: Social theory - Critical social theory - Value theory
 * Statistics : Extreme value theory


 * Other: Obsolete scientific theories - Phlogiston theory

Reference

 * Morrison, David. 2005. "Only a theory? Framing the evolution/creation issue". ''Skeptical Inquirer, 29 (6): 37-41.
 * Karl Popper. Conjectures and Refutations. London: Routledge and Keagan Paul, 1963, pp. 33-39; from Theodore Schick, ed., Readings in the Philosophy of Science, Mountain View, CA: Mayfield Publishing Company, 2000, pp. 9-13.

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